The Ann Arbor Area is a Climate Haven. How Will Real Estate Be Affected As Word Gets Out?
Forecasting the impact on local housing prices and availability as more “climate migrants” move here from other states.
Why is the Ann Arbor Area (and Michigan at Large) Viewed as a “Climate Haven?”
In general, Michigan has a temperate climate with abundant naturally resources that shield it from the worst effects of climate change.
In fact, an article from governing.com entitled, “Michigan Is Haven From Climate Change. Officials Must Prepare” by Sheri McWhirter and Lindsay Moore from MLive states that “Michigan looks increasingly attractive in a country where wildfires turn million-dollar mansions to ash in California, intensifying hurricanes sink homes along Florida’s coasts, and cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix face the alarming reality the Colorado River will no longer sustain them.”
While every community will be touched by global warming and extreme weather events due to climate change, Michigan – both north and south of the 45th parallel – is relatively insulated from the worst of these events.
While flooding and tree damage from storms will certainly increase over the next 50 years, these impacts are far less severe than drought, extreme heat, wildfires, hurricane-level storms, and tornados (which occur less frequently here and are extremely rare in Ann Arbor due to its topography).
In addition to this, Ann Arbor’s existing infrastructure and plans for growth position it – as well as other communities like Detroit, Grand Rapids, Lansing, Traverse City, etc. – to welcome a large influx of climate migrants from Southern states and Coastal states that are more directly in the crosshairs of wrathful climate events.
Here are some key stats from that article:
The Great Lakes contain 90 percent of North America’s freshwater supply and 20% of the world’s freshwater.
Michigan is on a short list globally of locations that have political stability, environmental security and industrial economic potential.
Climate change fueled events displaced 30 million people around the world in 2020 and conditions are expected to worsen.
In the United States, 40 percent of the population lives in coastal areas that could see rising see levels displace 13 million people by 2100.
The Southwest just weathered the driest 22 year period in 1,200 years.
Thousands of wildfires burned double the acreage they did in the 1990s.
By 2100, Houston is expected to have summers like Pakistan and Phoenix will be as hot as Saudi Arabia.
In contrast, Traverse City, Alpena and Marquette will compare to summers in Illinois or Indiana in the future while Saginaw, Lansing and Grand Rapids will be more like Memphis, Tennessee today.
Ann Arbor voters just approved a 1-mill tax for community climate action which would fund $7 million in investments annually in clean energy, waste reduction, energy efficiency, sustainable food, and resiliency programs and services for the next 20 years.
Indeed, many experts are saying the future is bright for Michigan and the Ann Arbor area, but planning for an influx climate migrants to the area must start now.
So, How Many People Are Coming And When Are They Coming?
The short answer is they are coming now with more to follow.
An article in Forbes by Samantha Allen entitled, “30% of Americans Cite Climate Change As A Motivator To Move In 2023” explains that in 2022 nearly a third of Americans explicitly cited climate change and 64% mentioned climate or better weather as a reason to move based on survey results conducted by Forbes Home.
Certainly, it is difficult to project how many people have moved to Michigan and the Ann Arbor area recently due to climate change but an informal poll of license plates in the Ann Arbor area show greater numbers of plates visible from California and Texas and similar locations affected by recent severe weather events.
Conversations at more than one neighborhood gathering have also turned to the topic of climate migration from a new neighbor who saw what was happening where they were and decided to move to the Ann Arbor and Michigan area.
The author has also talked with potential clients from the south Florida/Miami area looking to move to Michigan because of the climate changes they see happening already and what is projected to follow there.
This influx of climate migrants will put greater demand on existing housing supply, put upward pressure on prices and challenge affordability (which is already and issue) and strain the infrastructure in the area.
So what are places like the Ann Arbor area doing to prepare?
What Efforts Are Being Done in The Ann Arbor Area to Reduce The Effects of Climate Change Even More?
Let’s take a look at six different initiatives happening in and around Ann Arbor to reduce the effects of climate change on the area.
1. Resilient Washtenaw County Plan
Approved unanimously by the County Board of Commissions on December 7, 2022, it is designed to implement practical strategies and actions to get Washtenaw County (which Ann Arbor is a part) to carbon neutrality as an organization by 2030 and as a community by 2035.
Efforts will include energy transitioning to cleaner forms of energy, preserve nature areas, improve infrastructure and enacting policies that foster a circular economy that is seen as less taxing on the environment by keeping resources local and recycling materials.
2. Ann Arbor’s Office of Sustainability and Innovations
The Office of Sustainability and Innovations or (OSI) is tasked with overseeing efforts to make Ann Arbor carbon neutral by 2030.
The OSI has many responsibilities to oversee the many initiatives locally to reduce the effects of climate change in the area.
If you visit their website, you will see these goals:
3. Ann Arbor’s A2Zero Climate Action Plan
Ann Arbor’s A2Zero Climate Action Plan also falls under the management of the Office of Sustainability and Innovations. It is designed to implement strategies in energy, mobility, resource reduction and adaptation/resiliency to be carbon neutral by 2030.
Notice also that the University of Michigan, a large part of the downtown Ann Arbor area, contributed 32% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2018.
“30% of Americans Cite Climate Change As A Motivator To Move In 2023”
4. Ann Arbor’s 20 Year Millage for Community Climate Action
On November 8th, 2022, voters in Ann Arbor approved a 20 year millage that will invest an estimated $7 million dollars per year for 20 years to fund clean energy, waste reduction, energy efficiency, sustainable food, and resiliency programs and services.
5. University of Michigan’s Carbon Neutrality Plan
The University of Michigan is committed to achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.
Being a large part of the community of Ann Arbor and a global leader, they are committed to doing their part to reduce the harmful effects of climate change.
6. The Ann Arbor Transportation Authority (AATA) or The Ride’s Plan for Zero Emission Buses
The Ride’s Zero Emission Bus Plan calls for buses to be zero emission within 12-20 years from the year 2022 when the plan was initiated.
At the time of the study, the two zero-emission bus options being considered are hydrogen fuel cell and electric buses.
It will take time to finance this transition.
Clearly, the Ann Arbor Area is a leader in the state and country for climate action.
What Are The Effects of Climate Change on Ann Arbor Area Real Estate?
There are seven potential effects on real estate and real estate sales in the Ann Arbor area from climate change and climate change initiatives.
In February of 2023, Ann Arbor was moving toward banning gas stoves in new construction to reduce harmful effects on the climate.
Possible future requirements for sustainable materials to be used in new and existing developments in Ann Arbor.
A potential Time of Marketing ordinance in Ann Arbor for rentals and sale of houses that would require a study to be conducted and a report provided to potential tenants and buyers of the property’s energy efficiency and health and safety.
Ann Arbor has a Green Rental Housing program that would set minimum standards for energy efficiency and health and safety. The ordinance would require all landlords to bring the property up to minimum standards as a part of a regular rental property inspection. See document of proposed minimum standards here.
Even Redfin has a Climate Impact Report for any area of the country now including the Ann Arbor and Washtenaw County area that looks at flood, storm, heat, draught and fire risk that potential buyers can review before moving to an area.
There is already a limited supply of real estate for sale in the Ann Arbor area relative to demand and climate migrants moving to the area will likely put further pressure on housing availability in the area.
Affordability has been a challenge in the Ann Arbor area, especially recently, and demand for housing from climate migrants is likely to continue that trend. Lower numbers=lower affordability.
Even though the future is relatively positive for Michigan and the Ann Arbor area with less projected negative effects from climate change compared to many other places in the world, this good news will put pressure on real estate and real estate prices.
Bottom Line For Michigan And The Ann Arbor Area as a Climate Haven And its Effects on Real Estate in The Area.
Michigan and the Ann Arbor area specifically is one of the few places in the world projected to have minimal adverse affects from climate change making it a climate haven for climate migrants around the world.
The Great Lakes contain 90 percent of North America’s freshwater supply and 20% of the worlds.
Michigan is on a short list globally of locations that have political stability, environmental security and industrial economic potential.
Ann Arbor voters just approved a 1-mill tax for community climate action which would fund $7 million in investments annually in clean energy, waste reduction, energy efficiency, sustainable food, and resiliency programs and services for the next 20 years.
Even with all the positive climate news for Michigan and the Ann Arbor area, it is going to put pressure on housing availability and affordability from increased demand.
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